Looking ahead to the automotive industry in 2026, the complexity of research and judgment work far exceeds that of the past. To accurately observe the current industrial development, it is necessary to achieve "two integrations": Firstly, the automotive industry should be examined within the framework of macroeconomic development to observe its trajectory, avoiding being limited to an internal industry perspective. Only by viewing the industry from a broader perspective can we more deeply grasp the laws of development. Secondly, the macroeconomy can be observed through the development trend of the automotive industry. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the trends in the automotive industry often reflect the overall economic trend. By referring to each other, we can more accurately grasp the characteristics and trends of the automotive industry. Based on the above perspective, the following twelve development trends are identified.

1. The national strategic position of the automobile industry has become more prominent

In the future, the role of the automotive industry in the national economy and technological innovation system will continue to grow.

In terms of economic contribution, the operating revenue of the automobile manufacturing industry accounts for approximately 10% of the total manufacturing industry, and automobile consumption accounts for nearly 10% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Both have maintained relatively stable growth over the long term and play an irreplaceable supporting role in stabilizing growth and expectations.

In terms of opening up, against the backdrop of promoting high-level openness, the automotive industry has become one of the key areas representing China's high-quality production capacity and participating in global competition and cooperation.

From the perspective of technological innovation, in the intelligentization stage, cutting-edge technologies such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence often take the lead in achieving large-scale implementation in automotive scenarios, becoming important application scenarios for new productive forces. Without such major scenarios as driving forces, many new technologies and new business models are difficult to mature. Therefore, the automotive industry is not only key to its own development, but also increasingly becomes a core force driving technological innovation.

In addition, intelligent driving has become an important focus of international technological competition, and China has established a certain first-mover advantage in this field. It is expected that in the next five years, China's intelligent driving solutions will be deeply integrated with multinational automobile companies, and some technologies will gradually be applied globally.

II. The industry is evolving towards a new development model characterized by high profitability, high technology, and high value

Currently, the development model driven by traditional scale and cost is facing challenges. The automotive industry must explore new models, the core of which can be summarized as "three highs":

High-tech drive: With the deep integration of technologies such as artificial intelligence and large models with automobiles, the automotive industry is transitioning from traditional equipment manufacturing to a high-tech industry. In the future, the core competitiveness of enterprises will be more focused on technological innovation capabilities, rather than just manufacturing capabilities.

High profitability support: High-tech means high investment and rapid iteration, which must rely on a reasonable profitability level as a guarantee to avoid unsustainable development methods.

High-value recognition: The establishment of new models requires the support of the capital market and financial system. Only by gaining high-value recognition from the market can enterprises form a virtuous cycle and continue to invest in technological research and development as well as global expansion.

III. The domestic automobile market has entered a phase of high sales volume but low growth

Recent exchanges with multiple vehicle manufacturers indicate that while they are confident in their own development, the industry generally believes that they will face numerous challenges next year. The consensus is that the domestic automotive market will enter a new cycle of "high sales volume and low growth" in 2026. It is expected that the annual sales volume will exceed 28 million vehicles, and stabilize at around 30 million vehicles by 2030, forming a basic scale. The important breakthrough points for future growth will come more from the international market.

IV. The proportion of new energy vehicle ownership is rapidly increasing

New energy vehicles remain the core driving force for industrial growth. It is expected that by 2026, China's sales of new energy vehicles (including exports) will surpass 20 million units. This scale is landmark—from just tens of thousands of sales in the early years to the upcoming era of 20 million units, the development speed of China's new energy vehicles has attracted global attention.

It should be noted that the industry should pay more attention to the proportion of new energy vehicles in the vehicle parc, rather than merely discussing penetration rates. The proportion of new energy vehicles in the vehicle parc has exceeded 10% in 2025, is expected to increase to 15% in 2026, and is likely to reach 30% by 2030. From the perspective of vehicle parc, new energy vehicles still have vast room for development.

V. The new generation of battery technology enters the industrialization fulfillment period

Battery technology is the core competitiveness of new energy vehicles. In recent years, solid-state batteries have become the industry focus. Currently, some car companies have announced the implementation of solid-state batteries in vehicles by 2026, but industry observers believe that they are most likely to remain "quasi-solid-state" batteries. Fully solid-state batteries are expected to enter a small-scale demonstration application phase around 2027.

In terms of technological routes, the development direction of all-solid-state batteries is gradually converging. The sulfide route has entered the industrialization stage, and the research and development of oxide and other routes are also accelerating, presenting an overall trend of "diversified development and gradual focus". Due to cost constraints, solid-state batteries will primarily be applied to high-end vehicle models in the initial stage. It is expected that by 2030, solid-state batteries with an energy density of 500Wh/kg will achieve initial large-scale application.

VI. Large-scale popularization of assisted driving

China has established a certain leading edge in the field of assisted driving compared to Europe, Japan, and South Korea. 2026 will be a pivotal year for the large-scale popularization of assisted driving. Recently, several intelligent driving solution providers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have set accelerated popularization goals, with the core being to transition assisted driving from the "ten-thousand-yuan era" to the "thousand-yuan era". Cost reduction will support the rapid penetration of assisted driving, with Level 2 assisted driving becoming a standard feature on mainstream models, with a penetration rate expected to exceed 70%. More significantly, 100,000-yuan-class economical electric vehicles will also be widely equipped with this technology. The large-scale industrialization capabilities of China's supply chain are a crucial support for achieving this breakthrough.

VII. Continuous breakthroughs in key intelligent technologies

With the concentrated investment from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), chip companies, and intelligent driving companies, key technologies such as on-board computing power, large chips, and vehicle-end models are expected to continue achieving landmark breakthroughs. Automobile companies are accelerating their transformation into "AI-driven technology companies," and investing in intelligence has become an industry consensus. Whether it is through independent research and development or collaborative development, no company will reduce its investment in the field of intelligence.

VIII. Automobiles' overseas expansion demonstrates a leap in scale, regional expansion, and model upgrading

Going global has become an important growth pole for China's automobile industry. It is expected that by 2026, China's automobile exports (including fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles) will exceed 8 million units, and by 2030, the supply to overseas markets is expected to reach 10 million units. In the export structure, new energy vehicles are the main source of growth. The "Global South" market is becoming a new expansion direction, while Europe remains a high-value strategic market. The going-global model has also evolved from a single trade export to a diversified and localized model to adapt to the complex changes in the global environment.

IX. Multinational automobile companies accelerate their transformation to adapt to changes in the Chinese market

Currently, there are approximately 45 multinational complete vehicle manufacturers in China, with over 100,000 automotive parts enterprises, of which more than 10,000 are foreign-funded and joint venture enterprises, reflecting the significant position of multinational enterprises in the industry. However, in recent years, multinational automobile companies have faced changes in the market structure, known as the "scissors gap": five years ago, joint venture brands accounted for about 64% of the domestic passenger car market, while now the proportion of domestic brands has risen to 65%.

Multinational automobile companies urgently need deep adjustments, which are mainly reflected in two aspects: First, "In China, for China", that is, increasing R&D investment in China, building an independent R&D system, and tilting management decisions towards the local market. The past model of "R&D outside, decision-making outside, production inside" has undergone fundamental changes, and "R&D inside, decision-making inside" has become the new trend. Second, "In China, for the world", that is, promoting R&D achievements and products in China to the global market, leveraging the overseas networks and brand advantages of multinational companies to achieve the connection between Chinese technology and the global market, which also provides a new path for Chinese automobiles to go global.

X. Accelerated integration of the automotive industry with robotics and low-altitude economy

The automotive industry is deeply integrating with embodied robots and the low-altitude economy. This is primarily based on two common foundations: firstly, the three are highly shared in the supply chain (with a degree of overlap of about 70%); secondly, artificial intelligence, as a consistent technological foundation, has broken down industrial boundaries.

Currently, cross-industry integration has exhibited a trend of "two-way integration": automobile companies are expanding into the fields of robotics and low-altitude economy, while robotics component companies are also entering the automotive supply chain. This integration began to take shape in 2025 and is expected to progress to a deeper level in 2026. Emerging industrial forms have emerged, with many companies serving these three sectors simultaneously, making it difficult to define them solely within a single industry. To address this, relevant industry organizations have established cross-industry platforms to promote solutions to common issues faced by such companies in areas such as customer expansion and standard coordination.

In 2026, it is expected that more automobile companies will expand into the robotics and low-altitude economy sectors, and the trend of cross-industry integration will become more pronounced. For instance, companies like SOTON and Hesai, which originally primarily served the automotive industry, saw a sixfold increase in their robotics business in the second quarter of 2025, vividly reflecting the trend of integration.

Eleven, automotive services have become a new growth point in the industry

As profit margins in the manufacturing sector narrow, the automotive industry must extend towards service-oriented development. The connotation of automotive services has far exceeded traditional maintenance, finance, and insurance. Emerging services such as digital services, software upgrades, energy services, and AI remote diagnosis have rapidly emerged, forming a diversified business model of "traditional services + emerging services". These services can be directly provided by car companies and will also drive the development of third-party service providers, becoming the "second growth curve" of the automotive industry. It is estimated that by 2030, the market size of intelligent new energy vehicles will reach 5 trillion yuan, roughly equivalent to the scale of the automotive manufacturing industry (about 4 trillion yuan).

XII. The focus of industry policy shifts to standardized management and consumption promotion

With the rapid development of the industry, the challenges faced by the automotive industry are becoming increasingly complex, and the policy system needs to adapt to the requirements of the new stage. In 2026, the following three aspects should be focused on:

First, there is the issue of safety. With the continuous increase in sales and vehicle ownership, automobile safety has become a focal point of attention for the entire society. It is imperative to strictly adhere to safety bottom lines and strengthen standards and supervision.

Secondly, there is the issue of development. The Central Economic Work Conference has explicitly called for guarding against industry "involution" and cut-throat competition. The automotive industry needs to take the lead in breaking away from traditional models and fostering a healthy competition ecosystem. Policies should strengthen guidance and support.

The third issue is the balance between regulation and innovation. With the implementation of L3 autonomous driving pilots and the accelerated deployment of L2, L3, and L4 technologies, how to effectively prevent risks while supporting intelligent innovation has become a significant challenge.

Based on this, the automotive industry policies in 2026 will adopt a "three-pronged" approach: enhancing standards, strengthening supervision, and reinforcing regulations. Simultaneously, the policies will persistently boost automobile consumption, prioritizing new energy vehicles as a key lever for expanding domestic demand. Emphasis will be placed on tapping into the potential of lower-tier markets, and by improving the usage environment in areas such as charging, maintenance, and finance, a long-term, systematic consumption-driven mechanism will be established.

Only by combining economic incentives with environmental optimization can we promote the stable and healthy development of China's automobile market, providing solid support for the growth of the national economy.

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